2026 MARKET TRENDS

Population Health & Well-Being

Key Takeaways

Population health cost pressure is increasingly driven by a small number of high-impact conditions and gaps in prevention rather than broad utilization
Employers are becoming the primary drivers of prevention, access and early intervention as public health infrastructure and provider capacity remain constrained
Effective population health strategies in 2026 require targeted investment, better data and integrated approaches that link clinical outcomes to total cost of care

The rising cost of drugs to treat prevalent conditions is adding to medical trend and spend.

Overview

Population health strategies are entering a more consequential phase in 2026, shaped by rising chronic disease burden, persistent access challenges and accelerating cost pressure in specific condition areas. Rather than diffuse population-wide trends, employers are facing increasingly concentrated risk tied to cardiometabolic health, cancer, musculoskeletal conditions and behavioral health — often amplified by gaps in prevention and delayed care. The rising cost of drugs to treat these prevalent conditions is adding to medical trend and spend.

At the same time, responsibility for influencing these outcomes is shifting more decisively toward employers. As public health systems, provider capacity and traditional care pathways struggle to keep pace while employers are investing more deliberately in prevention, access and condition-focused strategies. The following trends highlight where population health efforts are evolving from broad wellness concepts into targeted, measurable levers for managing both workforce health and long-term cost risk.

Rising Burden of Chronic Conditions Concentrated in Small, Predictable Populations

5–10% of members drive the majority of employer health spend1
Cancer is the top employer cost driver, with prescription drug spending for cancer treatment projected to exceed $100 billion by 2026

Cost growth is increasingly driven by a small number of predictable, high-cost condition cohorts rather than broad population trends. Cancer, musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders, cardiometabolic disease and complex behavioral health conditions dominate spend and often follow identifiable clinical pathways. Many employers lack cohort- or episode-level reporting needed to distinguish preventable complications from unavoidable severity, limiting effective intervention.

Employer cost growth is concentrated, predictable and increasingly manageable with the right data. Employers should prioritize a limited set of high-impact conditions and require more granular reporting to support earlier, targeted intervention.

Metabolic Conditions Have Emerged as a Dominant Cost Driver

Nearly 40% of U.S. adults meet criteria for metabolic syndrome2
GLP-1 utilization has increased exponentially, with analysts projecting spending to exceed $100 billion by 20303
Employers combining GLP-1 therapy with nutrition and behavioral programs achieve 2–4x higher sustained outcomes3

Metabolic health has moved from a long-term risk factor to immediate budget pressure as GLP-1 therapies introduce high, persistent pharmacy spend. Adoption has accelerated faster than employers’ ability to assess downstream impact on total cost of care. Evidence increasingly shows that medication-only approaches deliver inconsistent outcomes.

Rapid GLP-1 adoption has made metabolic health a front-line cost driver. Employers should pair coverage with lifestyle modification programs and analytics to evaluate impact beyond pharmacy spend alone.

Employers Are Becoming the Frontline for Prevention and Health Equity

Preventive screening rates remain below pre-pandemic levels
Adult flu vaccination rates have declined 20% since 20194
Social determinants of health (SDOH) account for 30–50% of health outcomes5

As public-health infrastructure weakens, employers are increasingly responsible for closing prevention gaps that elevate long-term chronic and acute risk. These gaps are contributing to avoidable utilization and higher downstream costs, and poorer health outcomes. SDOH has evolved into a practical risk lens, requiring employers to identify and address barriers such as access, literacy and care navigation before conditions escalate.

Prevention gaps and social risks are where employers have an opportunity to control cost drivers and improve outcomes. Employers should integrate SDOH insights into population health strategies and expand access through targeted navigation and alternative delivery models.

Investment and Integration of Well-Being Programs

77% of employers include well-being programs in their healthcare strategy1
78% plan to increase well-being budgets in 20261
63% of well-being programs address multiple dimensions of health1

As investment in population health increases, employers are shifting focus from program availability to program effectiveness. Well-being initiatives are increasingly expected to align with broader benefits strategy, support priority condition areas and demonstrate measurable impact rather than operate as standalone offerings.

Well-being programs are evolving from engagement tools into population health infrastructure. Employers should evaluate how these programs integrate with claims data, clinical initiatives and vendor partners to help ensure investments drive measurable outcomes.

Digital Self-Guided Behavioral Health Tools

59% of employers offer digital self-guided behavioral health tools; 31% are considering adoption1

Digital self-guided tools are increasingly used to address access challenges created by provider shortages and long wait times. These tools allow employees to begin care immediately, reducing friction associated with provider matching and appointment delays.

Digital tools can expand access, but value depends on clinical validation and sustained engagement. Employers should prioritize evidence-based solutions and actively monitor utilization to help avoid low-impact, standalone tools.

Low- and Zero-Copay Behavioral Health Access

Nearly 16% of employers do not offer low- or zero-copay behavioral health visits1

Cost growth is increasingly driven by a small number of predictable, high-cost condition cohorts rather than broad Lowering cost barriers to behavioral health continues to drive increased utilization, primarily through high-frequency, low-severity outpatient therapy. This pattern suggests employees are getting care earlier, which may help prevent conditions from worsening and becoming more severe.

Reducing financial barriers increases utilization while supporting earlier intervention. Employers should anticipate higher program usage and evaluate outcomes in the context of workforce health, productivity and long-term cost trajectory.

1Brown & Brown Employer Health and Benefits Strategy Survey, 2026. 2National Center for Biotechnology Information. Social Determinants of Health. 3American Diabetes Association Industry Roundtable, 2024. 4CDC FluVaxView, 2024. 5County Health Rankings & Roadmaps, 2024.

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