2026 MARKET TRENDS

Commercial Marine

Key Takeaways

The cargo insurance market is undergoing significant softening across major lines, creating opportunities for buyers to secure more favorable terms
Improved loss ratios and heightened competition among carriers are driving an expansion in market capacity, benefiting well-performing accounts
Organizations with strong loss profiles are well-positioned to negotiate advantageous terms and conditions, leveraging the current market dynamics to their benefit

Market conditions remain generally soft across hull and liability lines, though some carriers are beginning to push back after several soft renewal cycles.

Overview

Expanding capacity and increased willingness among underwriters to negotiate terms are driving broad softening across most major lines in the commercial marine insurance market. This trend does not apply uniformly. The protection and indemnity sector continues to face pressure from rising claims, resulting in moderate rate increases. Uncertainty related to tariffs and the broader geopolitical environment also continues to shape market conditions. Overall, organizations with strong loss experience can expect a generally favorable renewal environment.

Market Conditions

Marine Cargo

In the cargo sector, customers can expect lower rates, reduced deductibles for All Risk and CAT coverage and greater underwriter willingness to enhance contract profit contingencies. Product offerings continue to expand, including for more challenging risk segments. Carriers are increasingly considering retail inventory coverage for the wearing apparel industry, rejection insurance for the food industry and delay in start-up coverage for equipment and manufacturing sectors.

Drivers of this environment include:

Established global market carriers experiencing improvements in financial results due to low-to-acceptable industry loss ratios
Minimal natural catastrophe (CAT) events leading to increasingly competitive reinsurance programs and growing market capacity
A proliferation of marine managing general agents (MGAs) specializing in specific risk industry sectors adding to the competitive landscape

Marine Hull and Liabilities

Market conditions remain generally soft across hull and liability lines, though some carriers are beginning to push back after several soft renewal cycles. The hull market remains overcapitalized, which continues to pressure incumbent carriers to offer pricing flexibility to retain business.

Protection and indemnity (P&I) claims have increased materially, driven by heavy losses involving container vessels and roll-on roll-off ships. Losses tied to electric vehicles, hazardous cargoes, lithium batteries and more recently coal have pushed the sector’s combined ratio to 111%, up from 96% the prior year.

Inflation, alternative fuel use and higher shipyard wages also drive repair costs, even as P&I continues to face high personal injury awards. Despite favorable investment returns and strengthening reserves, the International Group of P&I Clubs is seeking rate increases ranging from 5% to 8.5%. Fixed premium P&I markets are quoting similar increases.

Coastal Marine and Brown Water Marine

After more than five years of rate increases exceeding 10%, the hull insurance market has stabilized. Many accounts now achieve renewals at or below expiring terms, with loss experience driving potential reductions. Domestic vessel pollution liability markets, including the Water Quality Insurance Syndicate, continue to offer renewals at expiring rates.

In contrast, accounts with commercial auto or coastal property exposures face significant premium increases driven by outsized jury verdicts and catastrophic storm losses. Underwriters’ limited ability to expand excess reinsurance capacity has resulted in higher quota share participation and substantial pricing increases across most marine excess renewals.

Rate Outlook

These forecasts generally depend on continued stability in the war risks market and a lack of major catastrophe claims.

Impacts & Considerations

Unexpected developments, including large legal settlements, particularly in the U.S., continue to slow rate declines for certain lines and accounts. Overall, the commercial marine insurance market is anticipated to remain a favorable environment for buyers into the coming year, with the noted exceptions. To navigate the market effectively, organizations can take several practical steps.

Leverage the soft market

by evaluating whether inventory coverage should shift from traditional property programs to cargo placements to take advantage of favorable cargo rates

Start renewals early

and prepare clear, well-organized data that demonstrates strong equipment maintenance and effective loss control practices to support improved pricing and coverage terms

Actively manage loss experience

through ongoing loss control efforts, as accounts with unfavorable histories will continue to face pressure in the P&I and excess markets

By understanding these trends and preparing documentation early, marine organizations can maximize their leverage during this favorable market cycle.

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